As we get closer to the election, I tend to check out electoral college survey maps – at least in theory, state-by-state poll results are much more meaningful than national polls in showing how the presidential campaign is going. Ed Fitzgerald’s blog Unfutz is very usefully providing a more-or-less-weekly survey of all the various electoral map survey sites – here’s his most recent.
Related posts:
i read an interesting bit at Volokh. Colorado has a proposal to split its electoral votes. Evidently, many polls show Colorado leaning Bush; it could go either way. Most think if the vote splitting happens, it will go 5-4 or 4-5, instead of throwing all it’s votes to one candidate.
I’ve posted the newest iteration (8/22) of the survey here.
Executive summary: currently, of the 42 sites surveyed, 30 show Kerry winning, and 4 others show him ahead. Four sites show Bush winning, and 4 show him ahead. Kerry’s lead over Bush has eroded a bit, but he still averages a little under 300 votes.