South Knox Bubba has performed an invaluable service by summing up the health care proposals of all the Democratic candidates for the White House (Max has a similar post up). What I found particularly interesting was Bubba’s take on Kucinich’s plan: Bubba curtly dismissed it as politically impossible (the insurance companies and people “making $100k” would never allow single-payer) while admitting that “Kucinich’s plan seems to be the only one radical enough to break out of the status quo and maybe bring about meaningful reform.”
This sums up the problem with the Democrats, I think: they know what the right plan is, but they think they can’t fight for it because doing so isn’t politically safe.
I understand the impulse to play it safe. But I also believe it’s a losing impulse. The Democrats are facing a press which - on a national level - adores President Bush and will never report a negative about him. And they hate Democrats with a passion. President Bush’s campaign is run by Karl Rove, who isn’t a dummy and won’t make mistakes that hand the victory to Democrats. And when it comes to fundraising, the Republicans have advantages the Democrats can never match.
Ignore the polls showing that Bush is running even with an unnamed democratic opponent. (Remember how many Democrat partisans were looking at polls and predicting big Democratic wins in 2002?) Those polls are meaningless, because the Rove smear machine and the SCLM haven’t had their turns smashing the image of “unnamed democratic opponent.” If Bush is only running even with Unnamed - an opponent with no negatives - he’ll utterly cream someone like Kerry or Gephardt, once the negatives are piled on.
If the status remains quo, Bush has already won 2004.
There are only two ways Democrats can win: Bush could lose the election, for instance by appearing clueless and uncaring about the economy. But that’s how Bush Senior lost; I doubt Rove will allow the same mistake to be made twice. No matter how bad the economy is in 2004, Bush will be made to appear aware and concerned.
The second way Democrats can win is by not allowing status to remain quo. But that would require taking chances; it would require supporting positions that aren’t politically safe.
Personally, I think single-payer health care would be a good fight for Democrats to get into. It’s a fact-based issue that Democrats can win on the merits; no other health care plan can get the job done. It’s an issue that casts Democrats on the side of ordinary Americans and casts Republicans on the side of big insurance and big HMOs. For the vast, vast majority of Americans - the Americans who earn closer to $30,000 than $120,000 a year - it would be a clear gain to the pocketbook. It would work, and - unlike the health plans put forward by every Democrat except Kucinich - it doesn’t sound like a lot of weasel-worded mumbo-jumbo.
And if we fight for it, and don’t win? Well, then, we live to fight another day. At least a health care plan that could actually work will have been put on the table.
If not health care, then something else. My point is that Democrats have to act more like George W. Bush. That means taking risks; that means supporting some policy positions that the smart money in smoke-filled rooms say won’t fly politically. (Remember 1999, when everyone was saying that Bush’s tax cut was a ridiculous position to take, and he’d have to take a more moderate stance?)
Playing it safe is what the Democrats did in 2002. They took no positions that weren’t poll-tested and SCLM press-approved; they didn’t take political chances.
Why are Democrats so eager to repeat the strategy that got them creamed in 2002?
Playing it safe makes sense if you’ve got an even playing field. The Democrats don’t have an even playing field. The money, the media, and even the electoral college are all biased against the Democrats. In that situation, playing it safe is an almost guaranteed loss.
My prediction is that the Democrats will end up running Kerry or Gephardt, either of whom will run a safe, predictable campaign. They’ll do everything the smart money in the smoke-filled rooms suggest; they’ll support a health care initiative that’s confusing and can’t possibly work, and spend hours debating the minutia while the partisan blogs cheer every minutely-analyzed word and the American public dozes off.
And the press will hate whichever one it is, and run barely-rewritten RNC press releases smearing them, just as they did with Gore. And the public will not be energized, just as it wasn’t with Gore. And the Democrats will be outspent. And they will lose.
But thank goodness they didn’t take a chance on supporting a health care policy that could actually work. That would be a political disaster.
(Postscript: Emma at Notes on the Atrocities is discussing something similar today (permalinks bloggered), although she’s a lot less pessimistic than I am.)
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