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The Horse Race

Posted by lucia | September 8th, 2004

I commented recently on the erosion of the poll bounce for Bush. Rasmussen provides tracking polls; I always prefer graphs to columns of data, so I plotted the data.

Click to see larger image for the popular vote:
Popular.gif

The Rasmussen data shows the in-convention bounce and subsequent erosion in the popular vote. As of this morning, Rasmussen’s poll shows Kerry and Bush neck and neck in the popular race.

Click to see larger image for the electoral college estimate:
Electoral.gif

The spread in the electoral college predictions tend to amplify the current spread in the popular vote. Although, as we all know, the electoral college results can oppose the nation wide popular vote. Rasmussen has not yet released individual results for all 50 states; some states are considered too close to call. Consequently, his tally indicates neither candidate has the 270 votes required to seal the election.

For more detail on the polls, visit Rasmussen Reports.

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