I’m definitely not saying there are only two issues that matter. There are hundreds of issues that matter.
But for most of those issues — including most of the issues I’m personally passionate about — it probably won’t make a difference if the nominee is Obama or Clinton.
Take health care. Clinton’s proposal is clearly, albeit marginally, better than Obama’s. But that’s not an important difference, because neither Obama or Clinton expect to have their exact proposals put into law. The law will be written in Congress and brought to the President to sign, based on what can be gotten through the Senate (which will not have enough Democratic votes to overcome a filibuster, so nothing will get passed without a handful of Republicans agreeing to it). Ron Wyden — who is the leading Democratic Senator on Health Care, and who has quietly gotten a handful of Republicans to sign on to his Health Care plan — will probably have more to do with the details of the eventual health care reform than either Clinton or Obama will.
I’m not saying that health care is unimportant — on the contrary, it’s essential, and an issue that effects me personally. What I’m saying is that the relatively minor differences between Clinton’s and Obama’s health care plans probably won’t matter much for what actually happens, because on domestic policy the President’s powers are severely constrained by politics. When push comes to shove, what will matter is getting enough Senators to sign on to a plan — and either Obama or Clinton will go with the plan that they can get through the Senate, not the plan they talked about during the primaries.
The President certainly has a broad effect on what policies pass, which is why the broad differences do matter. The broad differences between Clinton and McCain, say, or between Obama and McCain. But when it comes down to actual policy, the differences between Clinton and Obama are narrow and likely to be washed out completely in the give and take of negotiating actual legislation.
What’s true of Health Care is true of domestic issues generally; it just doesn’t matter much if Obama or Clinton is in the White House, because the relatively subtle differences in policy or language choice Obama and Clinton supporters argue about won’t translate into differences in real law and real policy. Look at another couple of examples:
- Both of them will choose reliably pro-choice Supreme Court justices ; neither of them will choose Supreme Court justices who will reverse the Court’s bias in favor of business over labor. Even if either of them secretly wants to appoint a real leftist to the Court, the Republicans would filibuster, so forget that.
- Both of them are committed to trying to overturn DOMA — although Obama favors a full repeal, whereas Clinton favors a partial repeal (leaving a bit in as a hedge against an anti-gay constitutional amendment). It’s an interesting argument, from a wonky point of view, but in practice it’s doubtful 60 senators would agree to overturn DOMA in part or in whole.
These are issues I care a lot about — these are issues, in fact, of central importance to me. But they don’t provide a strong reason to vote for Clinton over Obama, or vice versa, because the outcome will be pretty much the same under either President.
What about sending a message that bigotry is not acceptable in a Democratic Presidential candidate?
I have a great deal of sympathy for this argument, and I would never say that this is not an issue that matters. We’d all be better off if future Democratic candidates learned that appeals to racism, sexism, and homophobia are a sure route to losing a primary. Even if it meant losing the 2008 election, it might be worth it if a clear message could be sent.
Unfortunately, it isn’t possible to send a clear anti-bigotry message this election, because there’s no clean candidate to vote for. Barack Obama’s people have undeniably made appeals to sexism during this election, and arguably so has Obama himself. Moreover, Obama allowed a outspokenly homophobic gospel singer to headline multiple fundraisers.
But what’s the alternative? The Clinton campaign has consistently brought race into the campaign, from the unsubtle whites-are-oppressed complaints of Ferrarro to more subtle attempts to make Obama into a Scary Black Man, including Clinton herself struggling to keep the Jeremiah Wright story in the news.
We can’t send a “no bigotry, no way” message with a vote for either of these candidates. Both of them have dirty hands.
The Two Issues
So what are the two issues where the differences between Clinton and Obama are potentially important?
The first, most important issue is who can beat McCain in the general election, because either Clinton or Obama — bad as they are, from a leftist point of view — would be enormously better than McCain. McCain is another four to eight years of failed Bush policies; more needless, avoidable war, more wasted lives, and more economic mismanagement.
The trouble is, although both sides play with math semi-persuasively (”only large states count!” “No, only swings!” “No, only Reagan Democrats!” “look at the fundraising!” blah blah blah), there’s no way we can know or even reasonably guess who will beat McCain by the larger margin, because we don’t get to run the general election twice.
Furthermore, arguments based on “electability” don’t have a good track record; remember when all the smart number-crunchers said we had to support John Kerry because he was “electable”? But in practice, Kerry let the Republican machine walk all over him. Deciding between the two candidates on the basis of “electibility” is problematic at best, guesswork at worst. Plus, by some weird coincidence, Obama’s partisans all look at the math and find out that Obama has the best shot of beating McCain, while Clinton’s partisans find the exact opposite.
In the end, the most logical way to decide which candidate is most able to win a national election is to create some sort of mock national election (we can call it something else, like a “primaride”), in which both candidates have to fight for votes nationwide in a vicious campaign run according to arbitrary rules while a vapid media looks for any shallow, stupid story to report on. It’s not a perfect solution, but I can’t think of a better method of settling the “electability” question.
The second issue that matters is foreign policy. Unlike domestic policy, Presidents have a great deal of control over foreign policy, even down to fine details. The president controls the military, after all. And even in other areas, congress has long deferred to the President for the details of our foreign policy, and that deference is greater than ever after eight years of Bush.
Because of this Presidential control over small details, even the small differences between Obama and Clinton on foreign policy are much more likely to matter than small differences on domestic policies.
In my next post in this series, I’ll argue that Obama — who is no progressive — nonetheless has an approach to foreign policy that is significantly better than Clinton’s, from a progressive point of view.